Economic crisis? Don’t let the trees blind you to the forest
This country and our economy are going to be unrecognisable. If you look at the figures (taken with a pinch of salt) you can venture some ideas to reflect on. Entrepreneurs are not oracles, but it is their duty to consider future scenarios and take appropriate measures to save their business and, ultimately, their wealth. Hence the title: we must look beyond today’s economic crisis and try to glimpse the next one, which will come soon.
If the warm weather arrives without a good “herd immunity”, can the current situation be repeated in the autumn? Will the social changes that are taking place take hold? Will there be less crowds in general, less going out for walks, less beer in the evening, etc.? If you are an entrepreneur, we recommend that you take a moment to reflect:
What situation will my business be in when the state of emergency is over? For example mid-July (?) or even more… Will I still have a business? How will it affect my business if people then go out less? Will my business survive this episode? Can my business survive another episode? Let’s imagine, for a moment, that in October we are confined again. We must ask ourselves these and many other questions, as the old saying goes: “forewarned war does not kill a soldier”, i.e. anticipating will always allow us to face things from a better position.
Given enough time, a business can use a variety of tools to weather the storm.
In our field, for example: downsizing, relocation of industries, bankruptcy, refinancing (bank or other), changes in business strategy…
ERTE modifications (May 13th)
The Government has taken to heart the saying: “You learn something new every day.”. So much to heart that every morning it publishes a new BOE, today the: Royal Decree-Law 18/2020, of 12 May, on social measures in defence of employment. This is a modification that professionals have been calling for, as it clarifies a lot of things.
When do the ERTEs end?
ERTE due to Force Majeure by COVID19 (art. 22 RDL 8/2020) shall end, without exception, no later than 30 June. Unless the Council of Ministers decides otherwise. The ERTE due to Force Majeure may be followed by an organisational ERTE, with effect from 1 July, applying the special conditions of the state of alarm (art. 23 RDL 8/2020). Let’s call it “consecutive ERTE”. What happens to the ERTE if we partially resume activity?
The ERTE may be partially lifted as activity is resumed. The reinstatement will prioritise the adjustments via a reduction in working hours. We understand that the legislator is referring to reincorporating the maximum number of people with fewer hours as opposed to fewer people with more hours. It is important to note that the processing of the “consecutive ERTE” must start before the end of the ERTE due to Force Majeure. That is, before 30 June. Otherwise, it would be a “normal” ERTE. The Bulletin says more, but this is the most essential. We do not rule out that the Council of Ministers may move the date of 30 June, but it should be kept in mind as the current deadline for ERTEs and the presentation of “consecutive ERTEs”.
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